The determinants and impact of short-term capital flows on stock market (conventional and Islamic) and economic growth: evidence from the OIC countries
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This thesis investigates the determinants and impact of short-term capital flow in the 33 OIC countries from 2000 to 2018 and bridges the understanding between both literature strands. The short-term capital flows are divided into gross inflows, outflows, and extreme episodes, analyzed under the push-pull framework. The empirical approaches for exploring the determinants of short-term capital flows consist of panel static and dynamic LSDV and probit models. Additional analysis controlling for Lucas's paradox conditions provides more insights and robustness. The study then analyzes their impact on economic growth (GDP), conventional, and Islamic stock markets. The study employs time-series models (ARDL and NADRL) to test the impact of short-term capital flows on economic growth and stock markets. The models establish the long-term dynamic relationship and synergize with prior findings on the heterogeneous responses of each country. The findings suggest that short-term capital flows into the OIC countries are tied to the global commodity and domestic consumption effects, indicating the dominance effect from push factors and the global economic cycle. Regional contagion act as a transmission mechanism of episodic flows across the OIC. There is also clear evidence of each country's heterogeneous determinants and impact of short-term capital flows, emphasizing the important roles of pull factors and the level of capital account openness. The impact of STC flows on stock markets confirms that they are susceptible to global economies and uncertainty, especially in conventional stock markets. The findings for Islamic stock markets support the "decoupling hypothesis" since they are less affected by global shocks from higher risks and uncertainty. The overall findings imply the importance of capital liberalization, institutional quality, and the optimal sequence of capital liberalization.
Short-term capital flows , Economic growth (GDP) , Conventional stock markets , Islamic stock markets , OIC countries
Suwanhirunkul, P. (2022). The determinants and impact of short-term capital flows on stock market (conventional and Islamic) and economic growth: evidence from the OIC countries (Doctoral dissertation). INCEIF, Kuala Lumpur. Retrieved from https://ikr.inceif.org/handle/INCEIF/3685