The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy

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Unlike most empirical works on fertility analysis, this study is the first attempt to analyse the dynamics of fertility and its determinants with a particular focus on the role played by female education and family planning programmes in the context of a traditional society. The analysis is based on the application of the following dynamic time-series techniques in a multivariate context: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling and variance decompositions. These `dynamic' tools are recently developed and hitherto untried in fertility analysis in the context of a poor developing economy, such as India. The results based on the above most recently developed methodology, broadly indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of conventional `structural - hypothesis as a `Granger-causal' factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, overall, in the short to long term, the findings appear to be more consistent with the recent `ideational' hypothesis (emphasizing the critical role played by the two policy variables in the analysis - i.e. changes in the female secondary enrolment ratios, and family planning programmes to ensure `initial' fertility decline) than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis (emphasizing a signifcant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline).
Fertility , Family planning , Female education , Developing economy
Mohammed Masih, A. M., & Masih, R. (2000). The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in a developing economy. Applied Economics, 32(12), 1617-1627.
Taylor & Francis Ltd

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