Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices on oil-exporting and oil-importing economies: a case study of Russia and Japan using ARDL technique
This study aims to apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of oil prices on oil importing and oil exporting economis using Russia and Japan as evidence. Quarterly data from 1997 till 2017 of macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, CPI, exchange rate, PPI, and oil prices were used in this study. Our results indicate that in an oil importing country like Japan, oil price increase has inflationary effects on the domestic economy as the average prices increase. Also, it was found that economic growth tends to decline in the wake of rising oil prices. The value of the currency is also shown to depreciate vis-a-vis the US Dollar as the exchange rate rises (exchange rate expressed as the value of home currency against the US Dollar). Conversely, for Russia, it was found that an oil price increase tends to decrease the inflation rates in the country and help accelerate the growth of the economy. This is because the oil industry accounts for the major share of the Russion economy. Nevertheless, suprisingly, our results show that the Russion Rubble depreciates against the US Dollar when an increase in oil prices takes place. The study can be further improved by including more countries to get more conclusive result and expanding the data range.
Macroeconomic impacts , Russia , Japan , Oil prices
Tayeb, H. A. (2018). Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices on oil-exporting and oil-importing economies: a case study of Russia and Japan using ARDL technique (Master dissertation). INCEIF, Kuala Lumpur. Retrieved from https://ikr.inceif.org/handle/INCEIF/3107