Beeronomics: a time series analysis of consumer behaviour in the beer market in Malaysia
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This study uses time-series analysis to investigate the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic interactions between beer consumption and the independent variables of income level (Gross Domestic Product per capita), wealth (proxied by money supply, M2) and total exports in Malaysia over the period 1961 to 2009. The study applies the multivariate cointegration methodology to establish the possible causal relations between these variables. The cointegration test and the vector error correction model demonstrate the evidence of a positive long-run relationship between beer consumption and the income level while wealth and exports have a negative impact on beer consumption in Malaysia. The long-term elasticity coefficients of the independent variables on beer consumption display relationships that are theoretically grounded. Further innovative analysis using variance decompositions lends evidence of the dominant influence of income level and exports in forecasting variance in the consumption of beer in Malaysia. The study concludes with an examination of policy implications of these findings.
Time series analysis
V. Rasiah, R. Ratneswary and Abdul Hamid, Baharom and Ow, Wilson Chee Seong and Habibullah, Muzafar Shah. (2012). Beeronomics: a time series analysis of consumer behaviour in the beer market in Malaysia. Taylor Business Review, 2 (1), pp. 133-148.