Military expenditures and economic growth in selected developing countries: causality analysis using panel error-correction approach
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This paper examines the causality between military expenditures and economic growth for twenty selecteddeveloping countries. In this paper we test for Granger long-run causality employing the Panel Error-Correction Model (ECM) framework using annual data for the period 1970 to 2005. Military expenditure is measured using the logarithm of the ratio of military expenditures to gross domestic product (milex); while economic growth is proxied by the logarithm of real GDP per capita (rgdppc). Causation (as well as cointegration) is inferred from milex to rgdppc, in a panel setting using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) when the Error-Correction (ECM) term is significant in an equation with rgdppc as dependent variable. On the other hand, Granger causality is said to run from rgdppc to milex, when the ECM term is significant in an equation with milex as dependent variable. However, before testing for cointegration or causality, the order of integration of both time-series in a panel setting was tested using the three standard panel unit root tests (Levin et al., 2002; Im et al., 1997; Maddala and Wu, 1999). Our PMG results suggest that the ECM term is significantly different from zero in a model when milex is the dependent variable but not otherwise. The result implies that there is cointegration between military expenditures and economic growth, on average, for all the selected developing countries.
Military expenditures , Economic growth , Causality , Pooled Mean Group , Developing countries
Mohd Tahir, Hirnissa and Habibullah, Muzafar Shah and Abdul Hamid, Baharom. (2016). Military expenditures and economic growth in selected developing countries: causality analysis using panel error-correction approach. International Journal of Economic Research, 13 (5), pp. 2113-2130.