Publication:
Forecasting volatilities of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index: new evidence form Markov regime switching GARCH
Abstract
The study employs different types ofrelatively novel Markov regime switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models along with standard GARCH to identify better models to forecast the conditional volatility of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index (DJIM). Several statistical and risk-management-based loss functions are employed to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast from these models. Our empirical results show that although there is no single model - either of standard GARCH and MRS-GARCH type - is consistently outperforming the others if both the statistical and the risk-management loss functions are considered, overall different asymmetric Markov regime switching GARCH models, namely MRS-EGARCH andMRS-GJR-type models, perform better than any single regime GARCH specification.
Keywords
Markov regime switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) , Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index (DJIM) , Project paper (MSc)
Citation
Reza, M. R. (2018). Forecasting volatilities of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index: new evidence form Markov regime switching GARCH (Master dissertation). INCEIF, Kuala Lumpur. Retrieved from https://ikr.inceif.org/handle/INCEIF/3098
Publisher
INCEIF
Available in physical copy only (Call number: t HG 4551 M478)