Publication:
Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic multivariate and cointegrated time-series techniques, 1965-1991
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Date
1997
SDG:
Abstract
Unlike most empirical works on fertility analysis, this study investigates the question as to whether family-planning programs can "cause" a significant fertility decline in a country characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development. The analysis is based on the application of the following dynamic time-series techniques in a multivariate context: cointegration, vector error-correction modeling, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions. These four dynamic tools are recently developed and hitherto untried in fertility analysis in the context of a poor developing economy such as Bangladesh. Our findings appear to be consistent with the new theoretical view that holds that fertility decline may result from either of two distinct developmental phases, one short-term and the other long-term. According to this view, the second phase (comprising the "sufficient" condition for fertility decline) incorporates the conventional view that in the long term, fertility decline may result from a complex dynamic interaction with organized family planning and significant socioeconomic structural change.
Keywords
Fertility , Diffusion , Dynamics , Multivariate cointegration , Vector error correction model , Error-correction causation , Variance decomposition , Impulse response
Citation
Mohammed Masih, Abul Mansur & Masih, Rumi. (1997). Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic multivariate and cointegrated time-series techniques, 1965-1991. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19 (4), pp. 441-468.
Publisher
Elsevier Science Inc.